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Divergence of realizations, forecasts using conditional expectations (rain nowcasting) The left two show two rain fields which are identical up until t=0, and then diverge afterwards; the far right shows the conditional expectation based on the history up until t=0. Notice that the details disappear quickly since they cannot be forecast very far ahead. The scale is a log scale such as those used in usal radar rain maps. alpha=1.5, C1=0.2, H=0.1. For some of the theory, see Schertzer and Lovejoy 2004 , Marsan et al 1996. |